In March, one US Dollar bought you Shs3,605. This month it costs over Shs4,027 and behind that number is a decision, then another, then another, and each one of them was made at the top.
Criminal despot Museveniโs minions lie that the weak shilling is the fault of distant wars and a strong dollar. It is a comfortable lie because nobody in power has to answer for it but it is a lie that easily falls apart the moment you look next door.
Look at Nairobi and Dar es Salaam. Kenya and Tanzania faced the same Middle East conflict, the same expensive oil and the same muscular dollar. Their currencies stayed comparatively steady. Only Uganda’s slid. In fact, MP Patrick Wakida, made the point plainly on X: “If it were the war or the dollar, all three would fall together, and they did not.”
Outside shocks are real. The Bank of Uganda itself cites corporate dollar demand, higher energy costs, seasonal buying and global financial conditions. But a shock only becomes a crisis when the house has no walls. Kenya’s central bank holds about $15.2 billion in reserves. Uganda holds about $6.7 billion or less.
That huge gap is not an accident of geography. It is the difference between a country that can absorb a blow and one that is told to endure it.
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When the Protection of Sovereignty Bill was moving through Parliament, the Governor of the Bank of Uganda, Michael Atingi-Ego, warned that it risked “economic disaster.” Parliament trimmed it and passed it in May.
Dictator Museveni rushed to sign it into a law, even after saying publicly of the draft that it was not the bill he initiated.
Truth is, the Protection of Sovereignty Bill only aimed at blocking Bobi Wine from recieving financing from NUP members abroad and as a result, investors who were moving money into the country were affected.
The law criminalises promoting “the interests of a foreigner against the interests of Uganda,” language is wide, ambiguous and vague enough to catch almost any foreign activity.
Investors do not need a lawyer to read a clause like that. They read the risk, they read the governor’s warning, and they sold. Between $400 million and $600 million left Uganda within four months after the Protection of Sovereignty came into force.
The direction of travel is not in doubt: when a state makes capital nervous, capital leaves, and the shilling pays.
Then came the moment that tells you everything. The Bank of Uganda proposed using part of the reserves to put dollars into the market and calm the slide. At the Independence Day celebrations, the senile dictator Museveni said he had blocked it, calling it a waste of the country’s reserves, and argued that a weaker shilling helps exporters.
Uganda imports its fuel, its machinery, its medicines and its vehicles. Fuel imports alone is at about $2.1 billion a year. When the shilling weakens, every one of those bills grows, and the increase reaches the boda rider, the market vendor and the mother buying medicine this proves that Musecveni is wrong on his stance of the reserves.
A currency collapse is a windfall for a few and a tax on everyone else, collected without a vote.
Reserves exist for exactly this. Holding them back while the currency bleeds, in the name of protecting them, is like refusing to spend salt saying food can be eaten without salt.
Citizens were promised relief from the oil. Not long ago the Governor said commercial production was expected in July 2026. The central bank’s own latest outlook now pins it to the second half of the 2026/27 financial year. Every delay pushes back the one structural offset that would let Uganda earn its own oil dollars, and in the meantime the country keeps buying fuel in someone else’s currency.
And while we wait, the public is told to stay calm. The Bank’s own spokesman says the pressures are temporary. Temporary is a long time when the price of bread is permanent.
What is happening is a deliberate act by Museveni to sink the economy, impoverish the nation and use that to control the people as he over stays in power. Remember he already said he wants to stand for president is 2036. He knows he wonโt easily make it there and if he does, his only way to rig would be through use of poverty to control everyone.
Enough is Enough with Musevenism!